Windows Phone 7: DOA?

Microsoft didn't bother to send me one of the Windows Phone 7 prototypes they've been circulating to media over the past week--which is OK, because I had my hands full reviewing the Samsung Galaxy S--but I'm hoping they'll see the light over the next couple of days, if only so I can jump into the review fray.A lot of those reviews seem very polite. There's some praise for the Windows Phone 7 operating system, which attempts to aggregate Web content and applications into subject-specific Hubs, as opposed to arranging individual apps on a grid-like home screen. And then there's Galen Gruman, who basically went nuclear."Microsoft needs to kill Windows Phone 7 and avoid further embarrassing itself by shipping this throwback," Gruman wrote in a July 15 posting on InfoWorld's Mobile Edge blog. "It's not a question of whether Windows Phone 7 will fail--it will--but how long it will take Microsoft to admit the failure. For the company's sake, the earlier it fesses up, the better."According to Gruman, Windows Phone 7's sins include an "awkward and unsophisticated" UI that "recalls Microsoft's history of clunky design" and use of "inexcusably old technology" such as Internet Explorer 7. Microsoft, he says, has come up with "an imperfect copy of an old iPhone."Gruman predicts that Windows Phone 7 devices will find their way to the carriers' remainder bins by "in January 2011."I'm not so sure that's the case here. I haven't had the chance to dropkick a Windows Phone 7 device of my very own (you truly never know how well a smartphone can suit your needs until you test whether it can survive a stray boot), but I have seen it in action, in a very limited way. Based off that limited interaction, the user interface seemed intuitive, and certainly nothing like the iPhone circa 2007.The bigger question--and this will affect its rate of consumer adoption--is how versatile the UI proves in handling people's lives and apps. If it's a snap to add new apps, or update information for a particular Hub, then Windows Phone 7 could prove sticky in the marketplace. If it's a pain, then users will shy away.If anything's going to kill Windows Phone 7, it's the Windows Phone Marketplace. I've said this before: if third-party developers don't get onboard with their apps and games, then this platform will die--but that death will be gradual, certainly not the "$25 bin by President's Day" demise predicted by Gruman.At this point, the developer front seems a toss-up. On one hand, Microsoft is pushing very hard (and even offering cash, rumor has it) for developers to port their wares on Windows Phone 7. On the other, I've been hearing a lot of angry rumblings from Windows Mobile developers--who could be the natural core group for Phone 7 development--grumbling about how Microsoft's attempt at a smartphone "reset" has left them with a.) no easy upgrade path for their existing apps to the new platform, and b.) needing to adapt to the all-new requirements of building for Phone 7. And at least one of those developers is a pretty major-sized entity.So we shall see. If Microsoft mismanages the launch--I've listed some of the things they need to do to succeed, here--then they're in very big trouble. But I think they could have the platform to make it work, or at least halt their slide in smartphone market share.What do you all think?
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